Search results for "Hierarchical model"

How do we understand other's intentions? - An implementation of mindreading in artificial systems -

A Bayesian unified framework for risk estimation and cluster identification in small area health data analysis.

2020

Many statistical models have been proposed to analyse small area disease data with the aim of describing spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously allows for risk estimation and cluster identification. Our model formulation assumes that there is an unknown number of risk classes and small areas are assigned to a risk class by means of independent allocation variables. Therefore, areas within each cluster are assumed to share a common risk but they may be geographically separated. The posterior distribution of the parameter representing the number of risk classes is estimated using a novel procedure that combines its prior …

Habitat area and local habitat conditions outweigh fragmentation effects on insect communities in vineyards

2022

Fragmentation of habitat, for example by intensive agricultural practices, can be detrimental to local biodiversity. However, it often remains unclear whether such biodiversity declines are caused by loss of habitat area or increased fragmentation, and how habitat quality factors into it. In our study system, vegetated vineyards are typically small, and isolated from one another, potentially limiting the distribution and dispersal of organisms. In a full-factorial experiment of a priori selected vegetated vineyard patches of differing size and fragmentation, we aimed to disentangle the effects of habitat area (area of vegetated vineyards), habitat fragmentation (number of vegetated vineyard…

Outlier detection to hierarchical and mixed effects models

2008

Hierarchical and mixed effects models are models where a varying number of coefficients may be random at different levels of the hierarchy. The purpose of outlier analysis for these models is to determine whether an outlying unit at higher level is entirely outlying, or outlying due to effect of one or a few aberrant lower level units. Most works on diagnostics for these complex models have focused on the mixed model rather than on the hierarchical models, obscuring some relevant aspects of the hierarchical model. In this paper we will present an approach to influence analysis and outlier detection for mixed and hierarchical model, focusing on the special structure of nested data that these…

Factors Influencing Teachers’ Use of ICT in Class: Evidence from a Multilevel Logistic Model

2022

Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have become a key factor in the educational context, especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and, correctly implemented, can help to improve academic performance. The aim of this research was to analyse the factors that influence teachers’ decisions to use ICT more- or less frequently to carry out tasks and exercises in their classes. To this end, we estimated a multilevel logistic model with census data from the individualized evaluation of students of the Community of Madrid (Spain) carried out at the end of the 2018–2019 academic year in primary and secondary education. Additionally, we applied multiple imputation techniques…

Epidemiological Information Systems

2008

Conditional predictive inference for online surveillance of spatial disease incidence

2011

This paper deals with the development of statistical methodology for timely detection of incident disease clusters in space and time. The increasing availability of data on both the time and the location of events enables the construction of multivariate surveillance techniques, which may enhance the ability to detect localized clusters of disease relative to the surveillance of the overall count of disease cases across the entire study region. We introduce the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate as a general Bayesian model-based surveillance technique that allows us to detect small areas of increased disease incidence when spatial data are available. To address the problem of mult…

A Hierarchical Model for Analysing Consumption Patterns in Italy Before and During the Great Recession

2016

The paper aims to explore how the Great Recession of the twenty-first century has impacted on the consumption behaviour of Italian households. Following a hierarchical approach, the study investigates differences in consumption behaviour at both household and regional levels. Using micro data on Italian Household Expenditure for the years 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2012, multilevel and two-step regression models have been estimated. The analysis has been performed for four different consumption categories: food, housing, work-related and leisure. The analysis reveals that the economic crisis led to increasing income elasticity for each category of consumption, especially for food, the most essent…

What Bayesians Expect of Each Other

1991

Abstract Our goal is to study general properties of one Bayesian's subjective beliefs about the behavior of another Bayesian's subjective beliefs. We consider two Bayesians, A and B, who have different subjective distributions for a parameter θ, and study Bayesian A's expectation of Bayesian B's posterior distribution for θ given some data Y. We show that when θ can take only two values, Bayesian A always expects Bayesian B's posterior distribution to lie between the prior distributions of A and B. Conditions are given under which a similar result holds for an arbitrary real-valued parameter θ. For a vector parameter θ we present useful expressions for the mean vector and covariance matrix …

Peer effects in the light of students interactions and the subjective dimensions of school experience

2011

This Thesis addresses the issue of peer-effects in the context of school. From analysis of a large database produced by a Chilean national study (SIMCE 2004), this work investigates the mechanisms through which pupils with different levels of scholastic, human and cultural capital influence each other. These influences seem present for a diverse range of school outcomes, including academic achievement. Drawing on the literature produced by different disciplinary approaches —sociology, economics, social psychology and education— the study focuses on ways of identifying and measuring peer-effects. The presence of subjective dimensions capable of reflecting, in part, the school experience of p…